Liberals narrowly miss out on a majority government; Conservatives and NDP face uncertain futures

While final numbers from Monday’s election are still being counted, the general outcome is now clear. In what many are calling a “comeback” victory, Mark Carney and the Liberals have won a minority government. The race remained tight as polls were counted, and for a while it remained to be seen whether the Liberals would pull off a majority government. In the end, they were only three seats off from hitting that majority threshold. With Carney having replaced Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister prior to the election, he will resume his place in parliament without needing to be sworn in as a new leader.

The NDP faced significant losses on Monday, with party leader Jagmeet Singh losing his own riding and the party dropping down to single-digit seats in parliament. Prior to the election the NDP held 24 seats, but the 7 it has now means that it will lose official party status (12 seats are required for this recognition). What this means in practice is that the party will no longer be granted certain measures of parliamentary funding, such as for research or office expenses. The number of questions the party is allowed to ask during legislative question periods will also be limited, and none of the NDP’s MPs will be able to sit on parliamentary committees. Experts say that all of these measures, in addition to the potential loss of legitimacy in the public’s eyes, will significantly hinder the party’s ability to perform as it might’ve hoped to.

The Conservatives, who will form the official opposition, also face an uncertain future with party leader Pierre Poilievre losing his own riding. While the party could choose to push him out and elect a new leader, most people (including Poilievre himself) believe that he will remain in the role. However, he would need a seat in parliament to do so – meaning that another Conservative MP would need to step down, giving Poilievre the chance to run for election in their place. This process, by which a “vacancy” is filled in parliament, is referred to as a by-election. The timeline on this process remains murky, though, as it is up to the federal government to set a date for by-elections (after a vacancy is recognized, the government has between 11 and 180 days to set an election date). So, it could be months before Poilievre is allowed back in the House of Commons. In cases like these, the party usually selects an interim leader to represent them in parliament until the official leader has a seat.

As for voter turnout, Elections Canada estimates that more than 67 per cent of eligible voters participated in the election. This would mark the highest turnout in a decade, since 2015.