Another day of sun: Above-average November temperatures tell us about climate change

November has been historically warm in southern Ontario, with above-seasonal temperatures reaching into the twenties. These temperatures have raised student concerns on campus. 

“For me, November always means the beginning of the best time of the year; the snow starts to fall!! It’s alarming that we are almost at the end of the month and we still have yet to see snow.” shared Isabella Mills, honours English student. 

Callie Sweet, honours communication studies and business student, expressed “While I enjoy the extended warmer weather, I find it unsettling. It makes me scared about what our seasons will look like in the future.”

Milder November temperatures are having different effects on students, contributing to climate anxiety for some while other students reported their enjoyment of the prolonged warm weather as it extends the fall season, and heavier coats can be left in the closet. 

Acceptance of these unusually mild temperatures is the concept of ‘comfort bias’ in action, the preference of familiar environments and situations. In this case comfort bias leads to the tendency to overlook climate change indicators in favour of enjoying the warmer weather. 

Meteorologists from the Weather Network have reported on the historical temperature differences, comparing this November to that of 2023 where freezing rain and accumulating snow were experienced throughout the month. This year Toronto experienced its fourth-warmest November day on record, reaching 24.3°C. These patterns of warmer weather late in the season are more than anomalies — they indicate a new trend. Our climate system is changing, and with this extended warmth, so too are our familiar seasons and routines. 

“We are on pace to set again the hottest global surface temperatures. Something’s happening, it’s not just random cycles,” said Peter Crank, an assistant professor in geography and environmental management and a member of the Waterloo Climate Institute. According to the United Nations State of the Global Climate Report, the past nine years have been the warmest on record, with Canada warming twice as fast when compared to other countries. 

“We see it in our trees, we see it in when snow is arriving, we see it in terms of our day to day activities here on campus — ‘do we need to use the tunnels or not?’ All of those things are examples and symptoms of the day to day weather that is slowly shifting over time as our climate continues to change,” Crank said. 

On campus, a warmer November means a longer season without snow, which can be beneficial for those traveling to and from class. However, this immediate benefit is at odds with the long-term negative effects that climate warming will bring. As Canada warms year round, wildfires and other extreme weather events with severe socio-economic impacts become more likely. 

“A good descriptor of the difference between weather and climate would be that weather is kind of like our mood. It can change quite quickly. It’s oftentimes dependent on small shifts in our environment, whereas climate is more like our personalities, they don’t change quite as quickly,” Crank explained. “[Climate is] a bit slower in that process. If we look at the first half of November, the weather was warm, our mood was quite warm. Now we’re back to more standard [temperatures], what we’d expect for Canada. But we know that underneath that, our climate, the personality, is shifting toward a warmer climate.” 

Climate change is largely driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere, which have been steadily increasing since the 18th century. In 2023, it was estimated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that the global average of atmospheric CO2 was 413.9 parts per million.  

“When we emit CO2 into the atmosphere it has a residence time, [which refers to] how long it stays in the atmosphere. We don’t actually know exactly how long, but most of it’s between 100 to 1000 years. That means anything [people are] putting into the atmosphere today is going to be there in 2124 and probably at least until 2224. [With] any change we make now, we might not see an immediate benefit, but rather we’re going to see in future generations an eventual leveling off and decrease in CO2 concentrations.” explained Crank. 

This year’s mild November provides an opportunity to reflect on the daily choices, both personal and community-wide, that have an effect on climate change. Conscientious decision-making, participation in climate discussions, policy work, and awareness of what our weather is telling us about underlying climate shifts is paramount to creating impactful change. 

Students from any faculty interested in learning more about the climate can enroll in GEOG 341: Climate Services, being taught by Crank in the winter 2025 term. The course looks at how climate science and models are being used in different areas of society such as health, transportation, and urban planning. Crank also recommends reading Marshall Sheppard’s writing for Forbes on weather events in North America and their relationship to larger climate change. 

When thinking about the future of our climate and the impact of climate change across all aspects of life, consider your emotions and actions regarding climate change. How does the weather affect your mood, and how does your mood affect the personality of our climate long term?